Juniper networks earnings

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In the event that there is more macro-related headwinds, I think we have a few things that are going for ourselves. First and foremost, the diversity of our business across SP, cloud and enterprise because it's unlikely in my view that there -- all of these verticals will be impacted equally, and we can rely on some verticals that do better than others.

I think that the types of solutions that we're offering our customers take, for example, our AI-driven enterprise solution that is all around reducing the cost and the complexity of running network really resonate with digital transformation efforts that are happening. And for that reason, I think there's a higher likelihood that such projects would be protected in the future, the competitiveness of our solutions. The fact that we have relatively small share in these massive multibillion dollar markets, all give me confidence that even in the event that there are going to be any sort of headwinds, we can actually do quite well through that period of time.

On the backlog conversion, I mean, customers place an order, they are, for the most part, aware of our lead times, so they're not surprised that we typically ship products several months, if not a few quarters after getting their order. I'd also say, in many cases, they actually want it earlier than we able to provide it. So the vast majority of our customers are trying to get the product quicker than we're currently able to deliver.

The beta we have now, I would expect to completely ship in the next three to four quarters, and it will kind of be phased in over that period of time.

So it takes a few quarters for us to turn the entire backlog given the lead times that we have. But we are doing the best we can to accelerate the orders in accordance with our customers' expectations when supply improves.

Your next question is coming from Sami Badri from Credit Suisse. Sami Badri. Hi, thank you. I wanted to kind of understand how much the effect of increasing pricing on products has impacted both your fiscal 4Q of ? And how that really impacts ? And I guess, like every company has been moving at a little bit of a different pace, pricing products and offering customers different terms and RFPs, et cetera, but we're trying to understand when all these price increases finally make their way into the actual numbers.

So that's kind of the first part of the question. So for actuals -- Q3 performance and Q4 expectations for this year, we are seeing an impact from the pricing actions we've taken over the past few quarters.

It's — and it's actually increasing over time. So the impact we saw in Q3 was larger than we saw in Q2, and I would expect Q4's impact to be larger than Q3. And the impact is showing up in revenue as well as gross margin.

But I would caution you on this year as well as next -- this year, in particular, the volume is driving significant growth. The vast majority of that is unit based.

It's taking market share. It's really not pricing that's holding up these results. Your next question is coming from George Notter from Jefferies. George Notter. Thanks very much. Going back to the discussion on gross margins. I think, Ken, you're alluding to about basis points of supply chain impact here in the Q3 results.

I guess, I'm just curious about how much of that gross margin impact came from broker fees, expedite fees, that sort of thing. I'm wondering how much of that might fall off as the supply chain environment starts to get better going forward?

So it was a little bit short of basis points, but it is kind of in that kind of range, to range if you were to normalize Q3 performance. And the majority of that delta is exit fees or purchase price variance, basically paying more to get the products that we want on time or earlier than we otherwise would get that, whether it's broker markets or paying extra for the part. So that is the majority.

The other factor in that number is we still believe freight costs are elevated compared to where they're going to normalize at. So those are the two big numbers in that delta. I would like to think we'll see some improvement next year. I do think we're still in a very supply-constrained environment with the long lead times, and we still are going to prioritize satisfying customer demand to the best of our ability.

So I don't believe those costs are going to go away entirely or go away anytime soon. But I do think we could see some benefit next year and particularly as we get into the second half of next year.

But really, it's just too early to count on that. I want to make sure that we take it as time comes. I know just to follow-up on that.

I know you guys made a big investment in components a quarter ago. Is there a point at which some of that component level inventory will have flowed through the model? And therefore, you kind of go back to more of a market rate of pricing? So from a price -- and to us or component costs are we talking about? So I mean, our inventory will turn when we're able to ship it, right?

And the cost that we'll pay has been elevated, and I think will continue to be elevated if we have it on our balance sheet. So we'll be paying for the same cost. The good news is the costs go up in the future, we won't have to pay those costs. The primary reason for getting the components, though, just to be clear, is not some — is not really a cost-driven exercise. It's really about supply and resiliency of supply and making sure we can satisfy customer demand to the best of our ability.

Your next question is coming from Meta Marshall from Morgan Stanley. Meta Marshall. I wanted to just kind of get a sense from you on what you're seeing in terms of cloud demand and maybe the difference between what you're seeing from your hyperscale customers versus your Tier 2 customers and if there's anything to note there?

And also, just given that you had kind of a new project ramping, just how that influences how you look at cloud into ? Thanks for the question, Meta. I remain very bullish on our cloud segments. The strength is broad. It's in Tier 1 hyperscalers. It's also in the cloud majors. And it also is broad in terms of the technologies that we're selling into the cloud provider segment, our automated WAN solutions, our wide area transport solutions that is and more and more data center type wins.

We've alluded to a few wins that we've had in the last few quarters. In fact, our engagement level with cloud providers across the board remains exceptionally deep at the engineering level, where we're engaging in existing as well as new opportunities and new projects.

We've now seen roughly around , gig wins in data center and the wide area across SP and cloud, maybe even a few large enterprises as well. And I think that speaks to the engagement but then also the strong differentiation that we have. So, all-in-all, I think cloud is going to have its ups and downs as always had but the general direction should be up and to the right.

But just from a general how your customer -- like how those cloud customers are feeling about their budgets? I understand that you're doing very well within them. Just trying to get a sense of kind of how their budgets are trending or just how you're seeing their demand activity trend?

In terms of the projects that are most meaningful for us, I think they're feeling good. As long as the cloud provider business is doing well, which they're all doing quite well, then they are going to need to invest in their network infrastructure to keep up with the demand for those cloud services. So generally speaking, I would say it's good.

Your next question is coming from Paul Silverstein from Cowen. Paul Silverstein. Thanks guys for taking the question. First, a clarification and then a broader question. On clarification, Rami, if I've heard you and Ken correctly, you've got , gig wins, of which are intra-data center switching. Did I hear that right? Can you share with us what's been the growth on a quarterly or annual basis in terms of the number of wins? And what are the average deal sizes in trying to decipher what's the growth from the gig upgrade cycle going forward?

And then I've got a broader macro question for you. So, Paul, it's a good question, but I don't know that number off the top of my head. It grew meaningfully just on a quarter-over-quarter basis because I think we probably added or so in the -- from quarter-to-quarter.

And generally speaking, because these are gig wins, typically, they're going to be fairly large projects. They're not necessarily going to be all large initially, but they are typically -- they start with an initial deployment and then the they continue in time.

So -- and the last thing I'll say about gig, whether it be in the WAN or in the data center as much progress as we've seen, we're still early innings.

The vast majority of ports that are being sold and deployed these days, whether it be in the WAN or the data center is still gig. So that transition from gig to gig is still in the process of happening right now. We should continue to benefit from it.

And Rami, to be clear, I assume your early innings with respect to both breadth and depth of gig adoption. My broader question, if I may. And I recognize the numbers, your order book, your revenue plus your commentary relative to previous questions, it seems pretty clear, but I got to ask you, F5 reported tonight alongside you, and they referenced fairly significant, in particular, abroad, not so much in the US, North America, but they referenced a pretty significant pullback, downsizing delays, et cetera, in projects, I asked the question whether that was specific to the product market, given what you said, and they said they don't think so, given the nature of customer behavior abroad, what they're seeing in terms of the downsizing delays.

But just to be clear you referenced some but it sounds like its — very — I am trying it to say for to what extent, just how meaningful in terms of number of customers, number of projects that will impact it on what that might indicate for the future, whether a downturn is coming or not for you? I mean, all we can say is there are certainly more customers that are thinking about their budgets and the time line of projects.

Have there been projects canceled? There's nothing that we see that has been canceled. Have there been some projects that have been delayed? Yes, some -- but honestly, not much more than we would see in normal times as well. The answer to that question is no. It's really kind of the same worldwide at this point in time.

Your next question is coming from Amit Daryanani from Evercore. Amit Daryanani. I guess maybe I think back to what you just said to the prior question. Maybe just talk about -- how much of that yet is networking budgets, are you growing at enterprise companies versus you picking up share? And if the share gains are happening? Maybe you can just talk but where are you seeing the share gains in a more pronounced manner.

So that's a great question. And obviously, we'll know for sure and to what extent there is share taking that's happening to enterprise once the share reports are actually out.

And there's also an orders versus revenue component to this because obviously, analysts only see the revenue and they track revenue. But my strong feeling is that we're taking share in the enterprise. I think there is -- we're participating in markets that appear to be healthy. But I also believe we have some very competitive solutions that are in the market today across the AI-driven enterprise and our data center offerings as well.

You heard me in my prepared remarks, I mean myst and our mystified revenue is crushing it. It's no longer just about selling Wi-Fi. We're selling full stack solution.

And if you look at our pipeline and our wins, a lot of that is full stack. I think the differentiation we have is just exceptional right now. And I think it will remain exceptional for a period of time. And we're going to benefit from that. We are benefiting from that. Your next question is coming from Alex Henderson from Needham. Alex Henderson. I think a lot of people got introduced to your AI capabilities with the Mist product, and it's obviously been a home run and really changed the dynamics for the company over time, proven effective premiums to drive business and upsell.

But I think the companies as a whole seems to have gone well beyond that, taking that same microservice cloud-native AI open architecture to the data center, taking it out to even the metro area WAN for service providers.

And as I look at all of the moves that you're making in terms of the acquisitions you've done and the like, it seems pretty clear to me at this point that you've made a major pivot in your strategy to one that's driven off of that set of enablement to drive the entire company.

And I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about when you're going to decide to announce this is the company-wide strategy. And the differences between your ability to execute on that strategy across the entire platform by getting employee buy-in and competitively, whether you see any of your competitors being able to follow suit because I don't think, for instance, Cisco could follow suit on this strategy.

It's pretty broad change you guys have executed. Alex, thanks for the excellent question and the great insight. I think you're picking up on something that's really important. We've always at Juniper had a strategy around automation and being automation-led. But you're right, the AI-driven enterprise and the miscomponent of the AI-driven enterprise has taught us some very valuable lessons in how to take that automation and take it to a whole new level with AI capabilities, and with a cloud-delivered strategy.

So, for example, in our metro solution that we're now selling to our customers, we've made the automation cloud first and AI-driven. I think we have the potential to do the exact same thing in the data center as well.

So, what you've described is exactly what's happening at Juniper. We've learned valuable lessons from one segment and we're applying them to others. And we need to do a better job in sort of communicating that more broadly.

I think that's great feedback and I appreciate it. Competitively, can you talk about your -- anybody else -- do you see anybody else able to execute a similar strategy or whether it's Arista, whether it's HP or whether it's Cisco? The more AI-driven capabilities we add to our solutions; I think the more of a competitive differentiation we give ourselves.

And honestly, where there is an opportunity to sell anything AI-driven and cloud delivered to our customers is fun to compete today because we tend to win the vast majority of the time. Your next question is coming from James Fish from Piper Sandler. James Fish.

Hey guys. Nice quarter given the environment. You guys made some comments that the supply chain is getting better, I would agree with you there. And if it continues to kind of improve in the step function Ken, without putting you in too much of a hole here, but w hat would prevent Juniper from growing kind of double digits next year on some of this backlog flush actually?

I mean the reality is the supply chain were to increase meaningfully enough. I would say, nothing would prevent us from growing double digits next year. There's really nothing holding us back next year other than supply from my perspective, and that's the reason why I want to be prudent with the model at this time. We have not established a viewing at this point. Your next question is coming from Fahad Najam from Loop Capital. Fahad Najam. Thank you for taking my question. Rami, Ken, my question is around security.

It declined a little bit. Can you maybe expand on what you're seeing? Is it that maybe security budgets were more first half loaded than in the second half? And are you seeing any pronounced impact in security in Europe? And is that something that is probably impacting your business more because of some macro? Thanks for the question, Fahad. So let me first answer the last part of it, which is no, I don't think there's anything geo-specific that we're seeing in our security business.

Part of the decline is self-inflicted. It has to do with the transition that we're deliberately executing on at Juniper right now from an appliance-based model to more of a software-based model that's subscription-based and that will come with recurring revenue.

And so for that reason, we expect that there's going to be sort of ongoing headwinds for a period of time, at least until we get into the second half of next year before we start to see a recovery. There's another element of our security, which is that, there's a high-end component that just tends to be lumpy.

There are large customers that either buy or don't buy high-end security and Q3 was particularly weak from the high-end security standpoint. Having said all that, the way that we look at security and we measure the — our success in security is through the integration of security in our strategic solutions.

We believe that more and more of our AI-driven enterprise solutions that we sell to our customers will have an embedded security component. We're starting to see that. We also believe that having strong security capabilities in our data center solution is going to be increasingly important to our customers, and we're also starting to see some of that as well.

It's just that we're going to have — we're going to let — we need to let some of these sort of transitions, product transitions in particular, from hardware to software play out. Operator, we'll take two more questions. Your next question is coming from Jim Suva from Citigroup.

Jim Suva. Given your great success, coupled with the increasing backlog A little commentary was made earlier about seasonality. Can you give us a little bit more insights on that? Because I wonder if as we exit , and I know it's early for given component constraints, does seasonality become less pronounced in , given the orders backlog success you've had in the easing of supply chain?

Yeah, it's a great question, Jim. And at this point, I do expect you to see some seasonality, but I think your point is valid. I do think that the degree of seasonality that we see could be lessened a bit. I mean historically, we've seen kind of a mid-teens decline sequentially from Q4 to Q1.

At this point, it's a little bit too early to call, but I do see a possibility of that being a little lessened on a sequential decline basis, but I do expect there to be some decline and some seasonality to remain in the business from a revenue perspective. Your next question is coming from Tal Liani from Bank of America. Tal Liani.

Great for squeezing me in. I have a very high-level question that I want to understand and it relates to something you answered before. So the biggest fear is that as we work off budgets, there's going to be weakness across the board. It's not company-specific, it's more macro related. And the question I have is just to understand how much visibility you have into the projects, into the spending plans of your customers? How much is there involvement on your end?

How much is their involvement in the future planning? I'm just trying to assess the risk of a surprise, negative surprise because of macro, nothing specific. So it's a good question, Tal.

I would say our visibility is very strong. I mean first year, the visibility that comes with the backlog. These are orders that have been made for existing projects, then there's a visibility that comes from having very strong strategic conversations with our customers, especially large customers, hyperscalers, large enterprise and service providers. And there, again, I'd say the visibility is great.

The only risk would be if the -- things would change in plans that we understand today were to actually change. Again, I will say that for the most part, we don't see that happening at this point in time, but we have to, of course, stay very close to our customers to see if, in fact, things start to change. And I will reiterate here there are deliberate things that we're doing that are designed to make us more resilient in the event that there is a downturn, the diversification of our business, the competitiveness of our solutions.

Even if you look in the enterprise, we've really re-honed our go-to-market muscle on enterprise sub-segments that we believe will be more recession resilient.

So healthcare, college campuses, public sector would be examples of areas that I think would be less prone to a downturn, and we're making those changes and adjustments now just to prepare. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. SA Transcripts It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Jess Lubert.

Sir, the floor is yours. Jess Lubert Thank you, operator. Rami Rahim Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on today's call to discuss our Q3 results. Ken Miller Thank you, Rami, and good afternoon, everyone. Question-and-Answer Session Operator Certainly. Aaron Rakers Yes. Ken Miller Yeah. Aaron Rakers Thanks, Ken. Operator Thank you. Samik Chatterjee Hi, guys. Rami Rahim So Samik, thanks for the question. Ken Miller Yes. Samik Chatterjee Thank you.

Simon Leopold Thanks for taking the question. Simon Leopold Thanks. Rami Rahim I'll take it. Simon Leopold Thank you. Rami Rahim You bet. David Vogt Thanks guys. Rami Rahim Yes. David Vogt Great. Very helpful. Thanks, guys. Sami Badri Hi, thank you. George Notter Hi, guys. George Notter I know just to follow-up on that.

Ken Miller So from a price -- and to us or component costs are we talking about? Rami Rahim I bought a bunch of stuff at cost. Meta Marshall Great. Meta Marshall But just from a general how your customer -- like how those cloud customers are feeling about their budgets? Dividend Stocks. Smart Portfolio My Portfolio. My Performance.

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Story continues. Recommended Stories. OK Cancel. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 5.

The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters. The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call. While Juniper has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock? There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook.

Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter s , but also how these expectations have changed lately. Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions.

Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions. Ahead of this earnings release , the estimate revisions trend for Juniper: favorable. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank 2 Buy for the stock.

So, the shares are expected to outperform the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks 1 Rank Strong Buy stocks here. It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. Another stock from the same industry, Ubiquiti Inc.