how changes in the economy impact healthcare
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How changes in the economy impact healthcare

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Since the relationship between health and economic growth varies in different levels of health care status quo and economic development in a country, it is important to identify which area the country is in. Western economies link with Asian countries in terms of economic development and the spread of products and jobs worldwide. Globalization has linked economies worldwide and increased the interdependence of global markets in the past three decades.

From a macroeconomic perspective, international trade in globalization benefits developed countries The consumption of commodities such as electrical and machinery products could not suffer from disruption in developed countries in the Western world, while a healthy and abundant workforce in major Asian countries contributes to labor-intensive manufactured exports On the other hand, from a microeconomic perspective, human capital and technology are key components explaining economic growth.

In major developed countries such as the United States, a highly educated workforce is an important element for a company to provide innovative products and services in technology and knowledge-intensive industries. People from Asian countries have represented the largest share of the workforce in the Silicon Valley of the United States where the world's largest high-tech companies and thousands of tech start-ups are Health is an important factor in the productivity of workers, as poor health can impair performance and reduce the quality of the labor workforce Thus, possessing a healthy labor force is vital for Asian and Western economies where firms and consumers gain from specialization in a global supply chain.

Previous studies have been unable to clarify the heterogeneous status linkages between health and economic growth in Asia under different health-economic conditions. The time series models used in past research could not detect the deeper connection between health and economic growth at different quantiles of the variables as conventional quantile regression is used to measure an explanatory variable's influence on the quantiles of another variable.

Thus, the evidence may be inadequate for the policymakers making decisions in the aspect of health-related policy. This study used the quantile-on-quantile method, which allows heterogeneous status to be studied in light of its results.

Thus, the potential connection and inadequate related researches in the health-economic nexus prompt us to contribute to this area. This study was conducted in Asian countries, and evaluation and comparison on various geographic or worldwide economies are recommended to validate the impact of health on economic growth in future research.

C-FW contributed to the research topic, research model, statistical analysis, and writing. TC contributed to the research topic and research model. C-MW contributed to the data collection. T-PW contributed to the data collection. M-CL contributed to the statistical analysis and writing. S-CH contributed to the statistical analysis and writing. All authors contributed to the article and approved the submitted version. Research Center of Hubei Logistics Development.

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

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Massaro R. Raghupathi V, Raghupathi W. Healthcare expenditure and economic performance: Insights from the United States Data. We expect that continued supply chain issues will push nonlabor costs above the trend we would have projected in These costs would likely become permanent.

At present, the increase in healthcare input costs is being felt primarily by providers. This is largely driven by a lag in contracting and renewal cycles. It can take several years for the impact of inflation to filter down to reimbursement rates, particularly for payers in government lines of business. Given this contracting life cycle, we expect that it will take one to three years for incremental costs associated with the commercial population to flow from providers to payers.

Employers, in turn, will then face the choice of bearing these increased costs or, as is more likely, passing more costs onto employees. A survey of more than employers revealed an average growth in cost of health benefits of 6 to 7 percent in the past three years; it also revealed that rate increases greater than 4 to 5 percent are unsustainable. Further, 95 percent of the employers surveyed reported that they would consider reducing benefits if costs increased 4 percent or more.

McKinsey Executive Survey, July 1, The top two cost-control actions that employers said they might pursue were increasing the employee share of premium costs and a shift to high-deductible health plans. This adjustment could indicate that the flow-through costs to government payers could happen slightly earlier than historical experience would indicate, but we still do not expect that it would entirely alleviate the cost pressures discussed in this article. For example, we estimate that clinical labor wages will increase 10 percent this year, nearly six percentage points higher than the IPPS rate increase.

Private payers in government lines of business Medicaid managed care and Medicare Advantage would likely not see additional government revenue until —27, given how prices in those lines of business are set. Also, premiums may be on the rise on insurance exchanges. A recent analysis 11 Compared with recent years, relatively few insurers are seeking to lower premiums; only four out of 72 insurers filed negative premium changes, while the remaining 68 insurers requested premium increases.

Some plans are seeking increases of more than 25 percent. We modeled three extremes of impact to better understand what might happen to industry profit pools Exhibit 2. First, what happens if spending increases, but there is no new revenue from any source? Second, what happens if spending increases, and the increases are passed on to payers in the form of unit price increases, but payers are unable to pass these increases to end customers such as employers or state governments?

And lastly, what happens if payers are able to pass the increases to end consumers of healthcare? Our analysis shows that if players do not take any mitigating action, industry profit pools will erode in all three scenarios, due to the lag in contracting cycles described above and the inability of most players to pass on increased administrative costs.

The magnitude of the impact varies, and even within each example the impact on any one company could differ greatly compared with other firms. We surveyed several healthcare leaders, many of whom say they are resigned to a sharp decline in operating margins. Payer and provider executives reported that they expect a drop in margins of between 25 and 75 percent, or one to three percentage points. Many payer and provider organizations have operating margins in the range of 2 to 4 percent, implying that earnings could be wiped out.

This situation could necessitate drastic responses. Executives at tech-enabled organizations, however, have more positive views, as they are expecting that payers and providers will rely more heavily on technology to promote efficiencies.

These executives said they expected a drop of about 15 to 50 percent, or one to five percentage points, in operating margins. Some of the actions these executives take could include layoffs. For example, more than a quarter of executives surveyed believe that they may have to let go of at least 10 percent of their workforce in the next six to 18 months. At the same time, attracting clinical talent was the number-one priority for providers, indicating that layoffs would likely affect nonclinical employees.

Further, to address the gaps in clinical labor, providers are considering several actions, the top two being use of technology to reduce labor burden 66 percent of surveyed executives and skill-mix optimization to enable clinicians to practice at top of license 64 percent. Rate increases are unlikely to offer a way out. While they may seem like the easiest path, payers recognize that price increases beyond historical levels are unsustainable; therefore, other actions will be needed.

Also, capital has become more expensive. As of August 26, And capital availability has tightened. Over the past 12 months, the federal funds rate has increased by basis points, to 2. But we already know that more than a trillion dollars of value is available in the healthcare system that has not yet been accessed. This is the perfect storm that could spur the industry to address productivity gains.

For example, the combination of cost pressures and a labor shortage provides an incentive to use technology-enabled levers to increase productivity, as any move to do so would free up capacity to meet demand and improve access while also reducing costs. Healthcare executives will need a disciplined approach and fast action if they want to come out stronger from this period.

Well-known tactical actions exist that can spur the required improvements, just as a set of well-understood organizational measures can help companies thrive during a period of uncertainty. The real question for the healthcare industry is whether incumbent stakeholders will be able to quickly set high aspirations in these areas, align the organization around them, and execute with the requisite speed. Those that do not only will weather the storm but may well come out ahead.

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In this view, increased health care spending improves increases access to new technologies providing both new options of treatment substitution and treatment for a greater number of individuals expansion. Technology often leads to more spending, but outcomes improve by even more. At a local level, health care spending growth is more likely to be viewed as beneficial.

It creates health care jobs, increases wages for health care workers, expands local tax revenues, and increases demand for related goods and services. The remainder of this paper is organized into five sections. The next section contains a brief overview of trends in health care spending. This is followed by four sections that contain discussions of the impacts of health care spending on 1 the overall economy, 2 employers, 3 employees, and 4 households.

As a share of GDP, health spending is projected to reach Spending on outpatient hospital services and prescription drugs continued to outpace the rate of growth in overall health care spending as services move out of the hospital and into ambulatory settings. Since , health care spending has increased at faster rate of growth than has gross domestic product GDP , inflation, and population. Data Source: National Health Expenditures NHE Tables. Although the recently passed Medicare prescription drug benefit is not expected to have a large impact on overall national health spending, it is expected to cause sizable shifts in payment sources.

Footnotes: 1. The public sector accounted for the remaining 46 percent of total health spending. Other government health spending on public health, veterans, military personnel, and school children comprised most of the remaining 12 percent of public sector health spending.

Finally, the publics share of health spending has steadily increased. In , public spending accounted for about 41 percent of total spending Figure 4. By , the publics share had increased to 46 percent of total spending. The gap between the growth in health care spending of 9. Companies with rising health care spending may cut other expenses, reduce wage increases, reduce health insurance benefits, or require employees to pay a greater share of the costs.

As more costs are shifted to consumers, they will weigh the value of health care services will be more closely weighed against other purchases. Some economists believe that rapidly rising health care spending lowers GDP and overall employment, while raising inflation. The effects of health care spending on interest rates and the relative impact on economic performance across industries depend upon the source of financing for federal health care spending.

The results of one study using econometric models indicated that deficit financing disproportionately harms export and capital goods industries, and payroll tax financing disproportionately harms consumer service industries. It should be noted, however, that some economists view increases in health care spending as a neutral, if not positive, impact on the economy.

Increased health care spending, in this view, is seen as a transfer. One Americans rising medical spending is another Americans rising income.

These transfers result in real employment growth and financial prosperity for companies that are largely American owned. The Congressional Budget Office CBO notes in a related viewpoint that as income rises, consumers may choose to assign a larger portion of their resources to health care services and a smaller portion to other goods and services.

Rising healthcare spending plays a central role in the fiscal health of the United States government. In , public funding accounted for about 25 percent of total health care spending. By , this share nearly doubled to approximately 46 percent of total spending. The primary impact of the increase in the governments share of health care spending is the burden it places upon the citizens to finance this spending namely increasing taxes, or increasing long-term borrowing.

In addition to reducing the amount of income that firms and households would have for other activities, tax increases also create incentives to engage in activities to avoid the effects of these increases. Increased government borrowing to finance health care spending growth has a similar impact on the availability of resources for other activities.

As interest rates increase due to government borrowing, the cost of capital to firms and households also increases, which would effectively crowd out investment in some activities that would otherwise been undertaken. Finally, increased spending often results in greater intergenerational transfers of wealth from younger to older segments of the population. In theory, increasing health care costs could make U.

Obtaining quantitative estimates of the degree to which health care costs have contributed to the US trade deficit or other measures of interest , however, is a complex undertaking. In contrast, for Switzerland the next highest country and the Slovak Republic the lowest country in the comparison group health care costs accounted for about 11 percent and 6 percent of GDP, respectively.

Many Americans receive part or all of their health insurance coverage through their employer during their years of active work and in retirement million Americans, or Some employers now view rising health care costs as equally important to their profitability as energy costs and broader economic trends.

Growth in health care spending has led employers to reduce, eliminate, or change this coverage. Rising health care spending has the potential to lead some employers to curtail new hiring of full-time, benefit-eligible, employees.

These increasing costs may also force companies perhaps most notably automakers with their large pool of unionized retirees to raise prices for their products. Employers have seen their costs to insure active workers and dependents rise. A majority of employers in reported that they are likely to increase the amount that employees pay for health insurance. From to , larger private sector employers providing retiree health insurance coverage saw their costs increase by an average of Further, 8 percent of surveyed employers eliminated subsidized health benefits for future retirees.

Since , the share of large employers offering retiree health benefits declined from 66 percent to 36 percent. Retiree health insurance coverage has become a key factor in negotiations between employers and employees, and in bankruptcy proceedings. Health spending impacts at the local market level are typically viewed more favorably. As the health sector becomes a greater portion of GDP, employment and related activities in the health sector also grow.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the health sector employed 6. Though health care costs are a significant burden to all levels of government, at the metropolitan level, that spending represents a substantial economic asset and potential leverage for improving job growth and wages. Most economists combine wages and benefits when examining employee compensation and the dynamics of the labor market.

Firms that continue to offer health insurance will focus on the total compensation, and when paying higher benefit costs may reduce wages or wage growth in an attempt to keep total worker compensation wages and benefits the same. Recent statistics support this understanding of the impact of health care spending on staffing decisions. While the overall labor force grew by 1 percent from July to July , the number of individuals employed in temporary positions grew by 9 percent during the same time period.

This includes coverage for low-income families, pregnant women, people requiring long-term care, and people with disabilities. Wide variations in Medicaid programs across the nation occur because individual states have the ability to tailor Medicaid programs to serve the needs of their residents.

Potential consumers can now use the Marketplace website to determine their Medicaid eligibility. As the baby boomer generation approaches retirement, thus qualifying for Medicare, healthcare spending by federal, state, and local governments is projected to increase.

Assuming the government continues to subsidize Marketplace premiums for lower-income populations, this increased government healthcare spending will greatly affect the entire healthcare system in the U.

Although Medicaid spending growth decelerated in due to reduced enrollment, spending is expected to accelerate at an average rate of 7. Along with policy and technological changes, the people who provide healthcare are also changing. Providers are an important part of the healthcare system and any changes to their education, satisfaction or demographics are likely to affect how patients receive care.

Future healthcare providers are also more likely to focus their education on business than ever before. This growth may result in more private practices and healthcare administrators. In recent years, the demographics of the medical profession have shifted.

Women currently make up the majority of healthcare providers in certain specialties, including pediatrics and obstetrics and gynecology. Nearly one-third of all practicing physicians are women. According to an Association of American Medical Colleges AAMC analysis, women comprise 46 percent of all physicians in training and nearly half of all medical students.

Based on these statistics, we can assume more women may enter the medical profession in the coming years. African-American women are more likely to become doctors than their male counterparts, according to AAMC data.

While African-Americans comprise only four percent of the physician workforce, 55 percent of the African American physician workforce is female.

This shift in demographics to include more women in healthcare supports diversity in the industry and represents overall population diversity. The prevalence of malpractice lawsuits is one way to evaluate the competence of healthcare providers. The amount of malpractice claims in the U. As the trend of declining malpractice lawsuits continues, it may indicate that provider competence and patient care will continue to improve.

Job satisfaction is one area that must improve. Nurses report higher overall career satisfaction than doctors, based on results of the latest Survey of Registered Nurses conducted by AMN Healthcare and compared to the Physician Compensation Report. Nine out of 10 nurses who participated in the survey said they were satisfied with their career choice. However, one out of every three nurses is unhappy with their current job.

It is difficult to say whether job satisfaction will increase in the coming years, but continued technological advancements designed to streamline the healthcare process offer hope to those who may be frustrated with the complexity of their jobs. Demands on healthcare change due to various reasons, including the needs of patients. Every year, new cures and treatments help manage common diseases.

Each such development affects the entire healthcare system as much as it has a positive impact on patients. As illnesses become more common, our healthcare system must adapt to treat them. Patient care needs will also evolve as the population ages and relies more heavily on resources such as Medicare and Medicaid.

Patient empowerment is expected to increase with advances in technology. The bubonic plague is a good example of a disease that can drastically change the healthcare system by quickly shifting all resources to handle an epidemic. In the Middle Ages, the Black Death spread so quickly across Europe that it is responsible for an estimated 75 million deaths. It may be surprising that the bubonic plague still circulates today.

In fact, according to Center for Disease Control data, there were 11 cases and three deaths in the U. Although the bubonic plague is not near the threat it once was, other diseases and conditions of concern are on the rise.

The following seven conditions are on the rise and can be expected to have an impact on healthcare in the near future:.

The healthcare industry has identified these previous conditions, preparing to handle further increases with supplies and resources. However, a new threat is always possible. If something similar to the Ebola virus spread across the country, this would have a drastic impact on patient care and healthcare facilities.

The current baby boomer generation, which initially consisted of 76 million people born between and , will be coming to retirement age and will increase federal spending on Medicare and Medicaid by an average of 5.

Healthcare technology trends focus heavily on patient empowerment. The introduction of wearable biometric devices that provide patients with information about their own health and telemedicine apps allow patients to easily access care no matter where they live.

With new technologies focused on monitoring, research, and healthcare availability, patients will be able to take a more active role in their care.

From policy to patients and everything in-between, the healthcare industry is constantly evolving. Aging populations, technological advancements, and illness trends all have an impact on where healthcare is headed. Since it is crucial to pay attention to shifts in society to understand where healthcare is headed, consider dedicating time each day to reading recommended industry literature that you will find in our list of 25 books for every healthcare professional.

The program provides traditional MBA core courses and specialized healthcare electives to help tailor the curriculum to your goals. Skip to main content. Historical Changes in Healthcare Healthcare reform has often been proposed but has rarely been accomplished.

The Complexity of Healthcare The many layers of variance in all parts of healthcare is what makes this system so complex. Health Insurance Market Choosing a healthcare plan illustrates the complexity of health insurance plans in the U. Healthcare Regulation Insurance is not the only complexity within the system. How Change Impacts Healthcare Resources and Facilities Changes in the healthcare industry usually occur at the legislative level, but once enacted these changes have a direct impact on facility operations and the use of resources.

Historical and Predicted Changes in Healthcare Facilities Cultural shifts, cost of care, and policy adjustments have contributed to a more patient-empowered shift in care over the last century. The Future of Medicare and Medicaid As the baby boomer generation approaches retirement, thus qualifying for Medicare, healthcare spending by federal, state, and local governments is projected to increase.

A Shift in Healthcare Providers Along with policy and technological changes, the people who provide healthcare are also changing. Demographics In recent years, the demographics of the medical profession have shifted. Competence The prevalence of malpractice lawsuits is one way to evaluate the competence of healthcare providers.

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